Bloomberg's November Payroll Prediction (backup)

Original article (if it's still there.)

U.S. November Payrolls Probably Rose 210,000, Survey Says

Dec. 2 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. economy probably added 210,000 jobs in November, evidence the labor market is picking up again after hurricanes and rising gasoline prices triggered two months of weakness, a report today may show.

The projection, the median of 69 estimates in a Bloomberg News survey of economists, would follow a gain of 56,000 in October. The unemployment rate is forecast to hold at 5 percent.

Employment growth is resuming after the hurricanes destroyed Gulf Coast businesses and caused energy prices to temporarily surge, discouraging companies outside the region from hiring. Employment growth may support consumer spending and keep Federal Reserve officials on the path of raising rates to head off faster inflation, economists said.

``We're sufficiently beyond the impact of the hurricanes for things to have settled down,'' Nigel Gault, director of U.S. research at Global Insight Inc. in Lexington, Massachusetts, said in an interview. ``The indications from data like the unemployment insurance claims are that the labor market still looks pretty healthy.''

The Labor Department is scheduled to release the November jobs report at 8:30 a.m. in Washington. Forecasts ranged from an additional 145,000 jobs for the month to 350,000. The economy may have added 5,000 manufacturing jobs after a gain of 12,000 a month earlier, following resolution of a Boeing Co. strike, based on the median forecast.

HURRICANES
Payrolls fell for the first time in two years in September after Hurricane Katrina struck Louisiana and Mississippi on Aug. 29. Hurricane Rita hit the Gulf Coast on Sept. 24, and its effects were felt in the October employment report. A third storm, Wilma, hit Southern Florida on Oct. 24, and its effects were more localized than the other storms.

Before September, the U.S. added an average 195,500 jobs a month this year.

Initial jobless claims have recovered since the first two storms, suggesting the labor market is rebounding. Claims last month plunged to an average 322,500 a week from October's 350,750, and reached a four-month low of 305,000 in the week ended Nov. 11, according to government data.

The Conference Board's index of consumers saying jobs were hard to get fell to 23.2 percent from 25.3 percent in October.

Today's report also probably will show that average hourly earnings rose 0.2 percent after a 0.5 percent jump in October, according to a Bloomberg survey of economists.

``Wage growth will continue to drift up, and I think that will keep the Federal Reserve tightening,'' said Michael Moran, chief economist at Daiwa Securities America Inc. in New York.

WAGES
Federal Reserve policy makers are concerned about tightening in the labor market because it eventually may lead to wage inflation. The Fed's Open Market Committee is expected to raise the benchmark overnight bank lending rate by 0.25 percentage point to 4.25 percent when it next meets on Dec. 13. The quarter-point increase would the 13th in a row.

At the same time, rising incomes and falling gasoline prices at the pump are lifting confidence and giving consumers extra cash to spend on holiday gifts. Preparations for holiday sales may have given the retail segment of the employment report its first boost since July.

Coach Inc., the largest U.S. seller of luxury leather goods, added about 3,500 holiday sales associates this year, up from 3,000 in 2004, Michael Tucci, director of North American retail, said in an interview. Part of the additional hiring was because the company opened about 25 stores this year. The rest is to help individual stores that needed more employees than they had had a year earlier.



FIRM Nonfarm Unemploy Manu
Payroll Rate Payroll
-------------------------------------------------------
Number of replies 69 66 15
MEDIAN 210 5.0% 5
AVERAGE 217 5.0% 5
High Forecast 350 5.1% 20
Low Forecast 145 4.9% -10
Previous 56 5.0% 12
-------------------------------------------------------
ABN Amro 200 4.9% n/a
4CAST Ltd. 155 5.0% n/a
Action Economics 175 5.0% 5
Alleti Gestielle SGR 205 4.9% 8
Argus Research Corp. 280 5.0% 5
BNP Paribas 210 4.9% n/a
B of A Securities 180 5.0% n/a
Bantleon Bank AG 240 4.9% n/a
Barclays Capital 225 5.0% n/a
Bayerische Landesbank 225 5.0% n/a
Bear Stearns 250 4.9% n/a
Bank of Tokyo- Mitsub. 180 5.0% n/a
Briefing.com 225 4.9% n/a
CantorViewpoint 213 5.0% n/a
CIBC World Markets 200 5.0% n/a
Citigroup 350 4.9% n/a
Claymore Advisors 265 4.9% 20
ClearView Economics 250 4.9% 15
Countrywide SEC 240 4.9% 8
Credit Suisse FB 200 5.0% n/a
Daiwa Securities 210 5.0% n/a
Danske Bank 250 5.0% n/a
DekaBank 200 4.9% 5
Desjardins Group 200 5.0% n/a
Deutsche Bank Research 275 4.9% n/a
Deutsche PostBank 220 5.0% n/a
Dresdner Kleinwort 240 5.0% 5
Essen Hyp. 300 n/a n/a
FTN Financial 190 4.9% n/a
Fortis Bank NV 200 5.0% n/a
Global Insight 215 5.0% n/a
Goldman Sachs 200 5.0% n/a
High Frequency Economics 175 4.9% n/a
HSBC Markets 160 5.0% n/a
HypoVereinsbank 190 5.0% n/a
ING Financial Markets 250 5.0% n/a
Informa Global Markets 165 5.1% 0
Insight Economics 225 5.0% n/a
IntesaBci 200 5.0% n/a
IXIS-CIB 250 5.0% n/a
J.P. Morgan 250 5.0% n/a
JPMorgan Asset Mg 150 5.0% 10
Lehman Brothers 230 4.9% n/a
Maria Fiorini Ramirez 175 5.0% n/a
Merrill Lynch 180 5.0% n/a
Mizuho Securities 350 4.9% n/a
Moody's Economy.com 225 5.0% n/a
Morgan Keegan n/a 5.0% n/a
Morgan Stanley 275 5.0% n/a
National Bank Financial 160 5.0% n/a
National City Bank 219 5.0% n/a
Nesbitt Burns BMO 225 5.0% n/a
Nomura 180 5.0% -10
PNC Bank 275 5.0% -5
RBC Capital Markets 190 n/a n/a
RBS Greenwich Capital 235 4.9% n/a
Regions Financial 190 5.0% 0
Ried, Thunberg & Co. 175 5.0% n/a
Scotia Capital 170 n/a n/a
Societe Generale 200 4.9% n/a
Stone & McCarthy 275 5.0% -6
Sumitomo 225 5.1% n/a
Thomson/IFR 145 5.0% n/a
Tullett Prebon 200 5.0% n/a
UBS Securities LLC 250 5.0% n/a
Unicredit Banca Mobilare 182 5.0% 8
Wachovia 175 n/a n/a
WestLB AG 210 5.0% n/a
Westpac Banking 225 4.9% n/a
Wrightson 225 4.9% n/a

To contact the reporter on this story:
Courtney Schlisserman in Washington cschlisserma@bloomberg.net.
Last Updated: December 2, 2005 00:18 EST